End Game in Afghanistan: Interests and Concerns of Regional Powers

Author(s) : Hussain Abbas, Irfan Hasnain Qaisrani

Abstract:

Afghanistan is under occupation by coalition forces led by the United States since almost last thirteen years. Invasion of Afghanistan was made on the pretext of countering terrorism, dismantling international terrorism and establishing democracy. Since the start of war regional powers have been involved in the war measures and post-war state building efforts with varying roles and interests. Regarding the role of regional powers there is a mix response from the International Community. On the one hand these are considered as ‘part of solution’ and viewed as facilitators. On the other hand their involvement is viewed as a threat to the stability and security in Afghanistan. It is established fact that regional powers have involvement in Afghanistan but the question is what drives regional powers for such involvement. War on Terror forced regional powers to cooperate in counter-terrorism operations but now when the withdrawal plan of International forces is announced, a new wave of competition has started between India and Pakistan to serve their relative geo-strategic, geo-political and economic and commercial interests. These interests are varying and sometimes conflicting. Besides other interests both the nations have strategic stakes in Afghanistan. Pakistan has pre-occupied with its ‘strategic depth policy’ and India with its security related to Kashmir. There is a clear indication that the clash and competition in Afghanistan among regional powers may be transformed into a hot war after the withdrawal of International Forces. The need is to manage their interests and neutralize their concerns regarding the post-2014 scenario in Afghanistan. In this regard an enhanced regional cooperation is required. Recent conduct of election and formation of coalition government in Afghanistan led both by the competing political segments can be regarded as an opportunity for the strengthening of stability and security situation in Afghanistan. At strategic level a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) has also signed between new Afghan government and United States that would also facilitate establishment of stability in Afghanistan. This will augment regional efforts to bring stability in Afghanistan. Paper evaluates the endgame politics in Afghanistan. It analyses the nature of regional powers’ interests and concerns in relevance to post-withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan.